Poisson_baseline {"family": "Poisson", "margin": false, "alpha": 0, "loglik": -20035.564865014076, "k": 1, "aic": 40073.12973002815, "aicc": 40073.21306336149, "bic": 40075.041753033576, "model": "Poisson_baseline", "pearson_dispersion": 1245.283649015639, "expected_zero_states": 1.1946610482140306e-09, "loo_mean_negative_log_score": 578.4621921426763, "loo_mae": 404.543079621646, "loo_rmse": 1203.661624588432}
Poisson_margin {"family": "Poisson", "margin": true, "alpha": 0, "loglik": -17179.096277668574, "k": 2, "aic": 34362.19255533715, "aicc": 34362.44787448608, "bic": 34366.016601348005, "model": "Poisson_margin", "pearson_dispersion": 942.3562166632952, "expected_zero_states": 0.013406143110945965, "loo_mean_negative_log_score": 514.8432940734344, "loo_mae": 391.99649074400963, "loo_rmse": 1165.2521097250408}
NB2_baseline {"family": "NB2", "margin": false, "alpha": 10.298589107596028, "loglik": -142.45879149406267, "k": 2, "aic": 288.91758298812533, "aicc": 289.1729021370615, "bic": 292.74162899898164, "model": "NB2_baseline", "pearson_dispersion": 1.5600472846763143, "expected_zero_states": 27.812511124528545, "loo_mean_negative_log_score": 2.9338662700935925, "loo_mae": 274.2308791493961, "loo_rmse": 1216.8193137891155}
NB2_margin {"family": "NB2", "margin": true, "alpha": 8.899800395854479, "loglik": -139.62855476147527, "k": 3, "aic": 285.25710952295054, "aicc": 285.77884865338535, "bic": 290.993178539235, "model": "NB2_margin", "pearson_dispersion": 1.2396800346467085, "expected_zero_states": 28.032250362851727, "loo_mean_negative_log_score": 2.888517869953128, "loo_mae": 343.33236398666804, "loo_rmse": 1231.9578661145986}
{
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  "mean": 239.64,
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  "texas_florida_total": 11405,
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  "texas_florida_pct": 95.18444333166416,
  "increase_vs_2024_2025_pct": 74.410480349345
}
